Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is expected to publish October consumer price inflation on Wednesday 18 November, a day before the Reserve Bank announces its final interest rate decision of the year on Thursday 19 November. The inflation release date comes from market calendars and should be confirmed against the Stats SA release schedule.

Where inflation stands

Stats SA reported that annual consumer inflation rose to 4.5% in September, from 4.4% in August and 4.3% in July. Prices rose 0.4% month on month between August and September. The reading was below the 4.8% Nedbank had forecast.

Transport was the biggest driver. Stats SA put annual transport inflation at 10.8%, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the headline rate. Housing and utilities rose 5.2%, contributing 1.3 percentage points, and insurance and financial services rose 5.4%, contributing 0.6 of a percentage point.

What economists expect for October

Economists expect a larger increase in October after another sharp fuel price rise that took petrol above R30 a litre for the first time. PSG Financial Services chief economist Johann Els expects headline inflation to reach about 5%.

Inflation is already above the top of the Reserve Bank's 2% to 4% tolerance band around its 3% target, and a 5% reading would take it further above.

What it means for the rate decision

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in September, its second increase this year after May. The committee warned that inflation is likely to exceed 5% later this year and in early 2027, driven by fuel prices, before easing as the fuel shock fades.

Many economists expect the committee to hold rates at its November meeting, although the outcome is uncertain. Els said: "For now, I do not see the need for further rate increases." He noted there is little evidence yet of broader price pressures.

PPS Investments' Mark Phillips has described the Bank as facing a "finely balanced" environment with "limited room for policy accommodation".

What we do not yet know

  • The October figure itself, which Stats SA has not yet released.
  • Whether the committee will treat a fuel-driven rise as temporary.
  • The exact release time, which readers should check on the Stats SA schedule.