Motorists could see petrol become cheaper and diesel dearer in December, according to early Central Energy Fund (CEF) data for the first week of November, which also reflects a reduction in temporary fuel relief.
What the early data shows
The CEF data show petrol over-recoveries of R2.02 a litre for 93 octane and R2.32 for 95 octane. For diesel, the data point to a negligible under-recovery of R0.01 a litre for 0.05% sulphur and R0.35 for 0.005% sulphur.
Part of any cut is expected to be offset by a reduction in fuel relief. As reported, relief for petrol is projected to fall from R1.50 to R1.00 a litre, and for diesel from R3.00 to R1.50, a net increase of R0.50 for petrol and R1.50 for diesel.
Projected inland prices
- Petrol 93: from R29.87 to about R28.35 a litre.
- Petrol 95: from R30.24 to about R28.42.
- Diesel 0.05%: from R30.85 to about R32.34.
- Diesel 0.005%: from R31.60 to about R32.75.
These projections exclude the slate levy of about R1.50 a litre and other monthly adjustments.
Oil and the rand
Brent crude has fallen to about $95 a barrel from near $118, and the rand is trading around R16.50 to the dollar, according to the same data. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said: "Typically, incoming fuel price cuts are used, where possible, to reverse fuel levy cuts."
What we do not yet know
- These are early, first-week figures. Oil prices and the exchange rate can move before the official calculation.
- The size and timing of the reduction in fuel relief have not been confirmed by the Treasury in the material we reviewed.
We will update this story when more complete data is available.
